Last updated: February 2, 2026
Historical analysis of three key problems in the Gospel birth accounts
The birth narratives of Jesus appear only in the Gospels of Matthew and Luke, written around 80-90 CE. These accounts contain several elements that are difficult to reconcile with known historical facts. This page examines three major historical problems: the Census of Quirinius, the Massacre of the Innocents, and the Flight to Egypt.
"In those days a decree went out from Emperor Augustus that all the world should be registered. This was the first registration and was taken while Quirinius was governor of Syria. All went to their own towns to be registered."
"Now when Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judaea in the days of Herod the king..."
Luke situates Jesus's birth during Quirinius's census (6 CE), whereas Matthew places it in the time of Herod's reign (who died in 4 BCE; Josephus notes a lunar eclipse, with its exact date/time calculated by NASA6). Josephus indicates that these events were separated by a decade, which included Archelaus's governance of Judea and its later annexation by Rome.
The Gospel accounts differ on the timing of Jesus's birth. According to Josephus, the events described in Matthew and Luke were separated by approximately ten years. This timeline presents a historical problem: Matthew dates the birth to Herod's reign (before 4 BCE), while Luke dates it to Quirinius's census (6 CE). The authors of Matthew and Luke appear to have prioritized their theological message (Jesus' divinely orchestrated birth) in their narrative construction of these events.
"When Herod saw that he had been tricked by the wise men, he was infuriated, and he sent and killed all the children in and around Bethlehem who were two years old or under, according to the time that he had learned from the wise men."
Matthew's account of the Massacre of the Innocents receives no corroboration in any historical source, despite Herod's reign being well-documented by multiple historians. Bethlehem was a small village with an estimated population of 300-1,000 people, meaning the number of male infants under two would have been perhaps 20-30 children. A massacre of this limited scale might have been recorded by Josephus, who documented various events during Herod's reign.
The narrative parallels the Exodus story of Pharaoh ordering the killing of Hebrew infants, from which Moses escaped. This parallel aligns with Matthew's literary presentation of Jesus as a "new Moses" who will deliver a new law. The story also includes a "fulfillment" of Jeremiah 31:15 ("A voice was heard in Ramah, weeping and great mourning, Rachel weeping for her children..."). The account appears designed to establish theological parallels with Old Testament narratives rather than to record a historical event.
"Now after they had left, an angel of the Lord appeared to Joseph in a dream and said, 'Get up, take the child and his mother, and flee to Egypt, and remain there until I tell you; for Herod is about to search for the child, to destroy him.' Then Joseph got up, took the child and his mother by night, and went to Egypt, and remained there until the death of Herod. This was to fulfill what had been spoken by the Lord through the prophet, 'Out of Egypt I have called my son.'"
"When they had finished everything required by the law of the Lord, they returned to Galilee, to their own town of Nazareth."
The flight to Egypt narrative appears in Matthew's Gospel but is absent from Luke's account, which presents a different timeline. The two accounts differ regarding the family's movements after Jesus's birth. Matthew states that the Egypt journey fulfills the prophecy from Hosea 11:1: "Out of Egypt I called my son." The Hosea passage refers to the Exodus of Israel from Egypt ("When Israel was a child, I loved him, and out of Egypt I called my son.").
Matthew's narrative creates a parallel between Jesus and Moses, who also came out of Egypt to deliver God's people. This literary device emphasizes Matthew's presentation of Jesus as a new Moses figure. The flight to Egypt narrative appears designed to establish a connection to Old Testament themes. It forms part of Matthew's pattern of narratives that "fulfill" Old Testament passages in the construction of the Gospel account.
The three historical issues examined here—the Census of Quirinius, the Massacre of the Innocents, and the Flight to Egypt—present complexities in the Gospel birth narratives. These accounts reflect theological concerns and literary parallels to Old Testament themes alongside historical elements.
The differences between Matthew and Luke, combined with the absence of these stories from the earliest Christian writings (Paul's letters and Mark's Gospel), indicate that the birth narratives developed decades after Jesus's death. The narratives appear to function as theological presentations of his messianic identity rather than as historical documentation.